Brussels tries new Balkan push

If at first you don’t succeed …

For the second year in a row, the European Commission called on the EU to let Albania and North Macedonia begin membership talks. The Commission argued on Wednesday that bringing Tirana and Skopje closer to the EU would make both the volatile Balkan region and the European Union itself more stable.

But the Commission’s arguments didn’t convince all of the EU’s member countries last year, with France and the Netherlands effectively blocking the start of talks. And it’s far from clear that the outcome will be any different this time around.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, presented the decision faced by EU governments as a matter of the bloc’s credibility. She noted the EU had held out the prospect of membership talks if Albania and North Macedonia undertook reforms to strengthen democracy and the rule of law and said the two countries have kept their end of the bargain.

“Albania and North Macedonia have shown a strong determination to advance on the EU path and achieved results that are concrete and must be irreversible,” Mogherini said.

“North Macedonia and Albania have done their part of the work; now it is the European Union’s turn to fulfill its part.”

Advocates of starting talks with the two Balkan countries argue the move would ensure the EU retains a strong influence on its southeastern flank in the face of competition from other powers including Russia, China and Turkey. Two other Balkan states — Serbia and Montenegro — have already been engaged in membership talks for years.

But skeptics, led by France, argue that the EU should not contemplate expanding until it has reformed so it can govern itself more efficiently. Critics have also highlighted the corruption, organized crime and poverty that plague Balkan countries following the wars of the 1990s and raised fears that enlargement will import more of these problems into the EU.

At a meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg last June, a majority of member countries argued in favor of opening membership talks with Tirana and Skopje. But opposition spearheaded by Paris and The Hague, with the backing of Denmark, led to the question being postponed for a year, as decisions on enlargement require unanimity.

Another meeting of the EU’s General Affairs Council on June 18 looks like it could end much the same way — with a postponement, at least for a month or two, if not longer.

So far Paris has shown no sign of changing its line. On the contrary, Nathalie Loiseau, France’s former Europe minister, boasted during the European Parliament election campaign of scuppering the start of the membership talks. Loiseau, who headed President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance list of election candidates, also stressed her hard-line stance last week on Twitter.

One EU diplomat involved in the enlargement process said many in Brussels had thought France would soften its stance after the election. “But after that tweet from Loiseau, I start to think that is not going to change,” the diplomat said.

“If you repeat it now, so publicly, you’re not going to change your mind in a few weeks,” said another diplomat.

Germany, by contrast, has taken a leading role in the Balkans under Chancellor Angela Merkel and is more open to backing EU membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia, which changed its name this year under an agreement to end a long dispute with Greece and open the path to NATO and EU membership.

But even Berlin may struggle to reach a clear position by the time of the June 18 meeting.

Hoping to avoid making enlargement a campaign issue, and facing pressure from Paris, according to two diplomats, the Commission delayed the publication of its annual assessments of membership hopefuls until after the European election. But that decision means the Bundestag, which has to give its say on any enlargement decision, has little time to deliberate and give its opinion before the meeting.

If the June gathering can’t reach a decision, diplomats say the issue could end up on the agenda of a summit of EU leaders later in the month or at another meeting of ministers in July.

Although France and Germany are not on the same page on the issue, diplomats said they do not expect it to trigger an open clash between the EU’s two biggest powers.

“I was afraid of a scenario like that but not anymore,” said a senior EU diplomat, who noted Macron and Merkel had worked together at a summit in Berlin in April with the aim of defusing tensions in the Balkans.

If enlargement talks eventually get the green light, it may not be for both countries. While North Macedonia has won widespread praise for its deal with Greece, recent political unrest in Albania has given Paris a fresh reason to say no to Tirana.

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